Decision-Making Model Analysis
General assumptions create the foundation of a person's reasoning. Imperfections with a supposition can create the opportunity for a skewed perspective in a person's reasoning process (Paul & Elder, 2002). The process of choosing one course of action over another is commonly known as decision making. Consciously or unconsciously, people make decisions on a daily basis founded on one or more of the various decision-making models (Sullivan, n.d.). This paper examines how I apply various decision-making models in the workplace to generate accurate workload estimations in my career.
The Qualitative Choice Theory also known as analogous reasoning uses past experience to help an individual make decisions. A resolution is derived by looking at what has occurred historically and basing the decision on the expected outcome (Arsham, 1994). The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) methodology is a decision-making model that uses a mathematical formula established on realistic, pessimistic, and optimistic estimates to provide an accurate estimate of the most likely amount of time to complete a project ("Critical path analysis & pert charts," n.d.). Building on the analogous methodology, the parametric decision-making model looks at one small piece of a project, estimates the amount of time required to complete the particular section of the project, and multiplies the smaller piece times the number of total pieces (International Society of Parametric Analysts, 1999). The Monte Carlo simulation is a technique that makes use of computer models to aid in making decisions in intricate circumstances (Grambow, n.d.).
My duties at work often require that I provide estimations for the level of effort required for projects I am ...