Nowadays, economy stands at a point where no clear signs indicate a clear expansion or contraction; however, the trends show a small rise of the economy. Four of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors ? beginning with the largest positive contributor ? were vendor performance, building permits, interest rate spread, and stock prices. The negative contributors ? beginning with the largest negative contributor ? were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), index of consumer expectations, real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials (The Conference Board). In addition to this, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' most recent Manufacturing Barometer survey, just 46 percent of respondents, compared to 70 percent last quarter, are optimistic about the world economy and only 54 percent, compared to 71 percent last quarter, are optimistic about the U.S. economy. The leading source of this uncertainty is concern over oil and energy prices.
On the other hand, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, decreased in September. September's decline in the coincident index is also partly due to the effect of the hurricanes as employment and industrial production registered decreases. The negative contributors to the index ? beginning with the largest negative contributor ? were industrial production and employees on nonagricultural payrolls (The Conference Board). Moreover, almost 58 percent of U.S.-based industrial manufacturers are not planning major new investments in next 12 months. Moreover, 57 percent of U.S.-based industrial manufacturers are not planning to add workers next ...