Groupe DANONE
Index
Part 1 : Forecasts on currencies
A) THE AMERICAN DOLLAR
B) THE CHINESE YUAN
C) THE JAPANESE YEN
D) THE ZIMBABWE DOLLAR
E) THE THAI BAHT
1. Part 2 : Danone
A) Presentation of Danone
B) Opportunities for Danone
Sources
Part 1 : Forecasts on currencies
Graph 1: Currency Evolution 1st semester 2008
A) THE AMERICAN DOLLAR
Graph 2: Exhange rate Euro/Dollar (last 5 years)
US Dollar appears nowadays to be one of the most unstable currency on the market. That is why it makes all decisions -based on US$ perspective- risky. By the way, some indicators can help for drawing trends in its variation.
First of all, if we look at the evolution of the currency during the last 5 years (Graph2), we can see that the Euro's value is increasing against the dollar value's. However, if we choose shorter terms to identify a future trend, and so, by looking at the past year's and the 3 last months evolutions, we notice that the Dollar is strengthening recently (Graph3&4). With the actual crisis, both financial and economic, a reverse in the US dollar downfall is hard to imagine.
Graph 3: Exhange rate Euro/Dollar (2008)
Interest Rates: To help the dollar to strengthen, US could raise interest rates aggressively. Indeed, this would have as consequence a diminution of the quantity of dollars, that is not favorable for financial firms that are facing big problems of liquidity. Thus, the FED will not hike the rates even if the inflation continues to rise because the finan ...