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Executive Summary
? The London economy slowed in 2005, though the latter six months of 2005 saw London stage something of a recovery in growth. The return to strength occurred as a result of financial and business services activity.
? In 2005 Q4, there were also encouraging signs of a recovery in consumer spending.
? Employment growth in London exceeded our expectations. The latest data shows that employment growth in London outpaced that of the UK. On balance, the majority of firms in the service sector expect to increase employment further.
? London's share of total output growth for the UK increased as a result of its strength in financial and business services, yet overall output growth is down slightly on the previous year. As growth nationally picks up in 2006 and 2007, we believe London will benefit disproportionately to the rest of the UK regions.
? The manufacturing sector will see further employment decline, yet London will benefit in terms of manufacturing output growth as consumer spending returns to trend with increased stability in the housing market from 2007.
Fig. 1: London and UK Annual GVA Growth (%) 1990-2010
GVA, 2005-2010 (% growth, p.a.)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
London 2.9 3.5 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.0
UK 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.4 ...