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The case “NORTH STAR CONCERT” is about Lucinda Ramirez who is about to begin
producing T-shirts for a rock concert. The central problem in this case is that she needs
to decide how many shirts she should produce for the concert to maximize her profits.
Her decision in this case can be categorized as “Decision under uncertainty” as probabilities
associated with all possible states of nature are neither stated in the case facts nor can be
determined from the given data. I would like to arrive at a decision by using decision table with
probable states of nature with their respective pay-offs.
The significant factors of the central problem are attendance in the
stadium, percent of attendees who would buy shirts, whether the North Star band would
cancel the rock concert or not and attitude of Lucinda towards risk and hence criteria of choice
for decision making. As per Lucinda estimates, the probability of stadium (capacity 100,000)
being 90% full is low and the probability for stadium being 50% full is high. She would also
like to consider a possibility of stadium being 25% full in case of bad weather. Thus possible
attendance of stadium would range from 25,000 to 90,000. With average 10% of attendees
buying shirts, the probable states of nature can be taken as 2500, 5000 and 9000.
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