Table of Content
Table of Content 1
1.0. Introduction 2
2.0. Is Scenario Planning Worthwhile? 2
2.1. Redefining the dilemma 2
2.2. What is scenario planning? 3
2.3. Who should, and should not conduct scenario planning? 7
3. Conclusion 9
Reference List 10
1.0. Introduction
Scenario planning is a tool of strategic decision-making that does not focus on accurately predicting the future, but is a process that creates a number of possible futures that are credible yet uncertain (Schoemaker, 1995; van der Heijden, 1996). Scenario planning has been implemented successfully to a great extent, however there is a fundamental dilemma in the use of scenario planning where its causes “wrong strategic choices to be made, uses too much time, and costs too much” where it was intended to help organizations make right decisions, save time and reduce costs (increase profits).
2.0. Is Scenario Planning Worthwhile?
A critical analysis would be made to explore both sides to this view, for and against the use of scenario planning in international strategy developments. However, to refine and better the outcome of the analysis, the scope of fundamental dilemma would need to be redefined.
2.1. Redefining the dilemma
Cost redefined
Concerning the cost involved in scenario planning, the costs of scenario planning really depends on the numerous variables such as the organization size, timeframe of the scenarios, teams and those partnering in the strategic planning process (outsourcing, additional consultations from professional planners would drive up cost) and methods ...