Market Forecast
The tea market is expected to decline from current levels during November & December for all elevations. However the lowgrowns should average above Rs. 300 for the two months, liquoring leafies & Nuwaraeliya should average around Rs.270 & Rs. 240 respectively, the CTC's should realize between Rs. 265 ? Rs.275.
For the whole of 2008, Ceylon orthodox varieties will sell at Premiums and achieve very good prices provided the quality is correct. Small leaf BOP/BOPF will continue to be at relatively much lower levels than the Leafies. This is because there are a sizeable quantity of small leaf BOP/BOPF/PF1/BP1/D1 and PDs available in the world from North India, African countries, Indonesia, China and Bangladesh with Vietnam having a few CTC factories. Leafy production is limited which is why the Indian Govt. has given an Incentive to Producers to increase their Orthodox quantities in South India.
During the first quarter there is hardly any crop from North India, Bangladesh and China due to winter and also smaller crops in Sri Lanka and South India. This is why we enjoy a premium prices during Jan/Mar. Low growns as well as liquoring orthodox varieties should gain Rs.10 ? Rs.15 or more depending on the crop intakes & the quality of the product. The CTC Medium types too should appreciate but may be to a lesser extent. Our Nuwaraeliyas should fare extremely well during the 1st quarter provided the weather sets in for the western quality season. Sharp increase in prices could be witnessed during the season advancing Rs. 20 ? Rs.30 or even more at times from year end closing levels....